Evaluating my midterm predictions

I realized that if I don’t do this now then I won’t ever get this done. I made my predictions here.

“GOP will win the Senate” I was right! My 52 was slightly low, it’s going to be 53 or 54 but I’m counting this as a win.

“But we won’t know the exact number of GOP Senators for awhile” I was right about this. Louisiana is in a run-off and Alaska’s Mark Begich refuses to concede (even though he lost). Two-for-two!

“The turnout will be low” I believe I had that. I mentioned 40 percent turnout and it was even lower — 36.3 percent. Three-for-three.

“Voter ID laws will be blamed” They weren’t blamed as much as I thought they would be, but you still had a hard time watching TV coverage without it being mentioned. Counting this in the win column. Four-for-four.

“But I don’t think they are what made the difference” On the money here. This New York Times explains it in more detail than I would ever want to. Five-for-five.

“We will have nerd-on-nerd crime” Really was saved by everyone trashing the pollsters. Most of the aggregators stayed polite but people really trashed the polling. Six-for-six.

“Colbert and Stewart will be great” This was the lock of the night and it connected. Seven-for-seven.

Revisiting the Mayday Super PAC, which I referred to as the Hipster Super PAC: They didn’t have a great night.

According to Recode, the PAC raised $10.6 million and lost six of eight races. The website goes on to say “The two Mayday candidates who won — conservative North Carolina Rep. Walter Jones and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallaga, a former state lawmaker – both did it mostly without Mayday’s help. In both races, the candidates faced tough primary challengers, but Mayday didn’t get involved in either race until shortly before voters went to the polls.”

Larry Lessig, a creator of Mayday, put it even stronger in his post titled “We lost. Badly” I’ll admit that I didn’t think they would do that poorly. You knew they weren’t going to sweep into Congress but they didn’t realize how their own methods would backfire.

I have thought for a while that money in politics is a red herring, it’s something people can blame while sounding smart (as with gerrymandering) but doesn’t explain the whole problem. The Washington Post explained it well here. That doesn’t mean that all this money in politics is a good thing or that it has NO effect, it just means ending it (or particularly reversing Citizens United, which would not end all money in politics) would be a silver bullet.

Interested in reading more about Mayday’s failure, I’m not, but here is the link to Politico’s piece.

As always, thanks for reading.

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~ by realfactsandbeer on November 14, 2014.

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