Predictions for the 2014 midterm elections

A warning: I wrote this post on my phone in a bar (the way most of these blogs should be written but aren’t). Please excuse any typos, autocorrects and grammar mistakes

The Republicans will keep the House: We’re not starting out with very bold predictions but it should be said: I would be shocked in the GOP lost control of the House.

GOP will win the Senate: See? This pick seems almost risky when you compare it to the first one. I don’t think this will be a huge wave election, think 2010, but the calendar looks good for the Elephants and I think they will have a 52 member majority.

But we won’t know the exact number of GOP Senators for awhile: By Wednesday morning I think we’ll know that who controls both legislative bodies, but with recounts, runoffs, remoteness and who will caucus with who — I just don’t think we’ll know the exact numbers

The turnout will be low It’s the midterms and people are largely ambivalent (in the best case) about politicians. I think it will be at 40 percent (about 2006 levels and lower than 2010).

Voter ID laws will be blamed These laws have been such a Hot Button issue that I don’t think I have to recap it here. A low turnout and a GOP win will likely make these laws a scapegoat for the Dems in charge.

But I don’t think they are what made the difference For the voter ID laws to be a make-or-break issue it will have had to suppress votes by the margin of the GOP’s victory and I don’t think it will be that high. I tend to think people without government issued IDs and who live far away from any way of getting one (which has been made more difficult in the post-motor voter era) have much lower turnout rates (for a variety of reasons) than other voters.

More predictions once I finish this beer. Take this as an intermission

We’re back! With more predictions!

We will have nerd-on-nerd crime The obvious one would be Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang and that’s probably going to happen but I wouldn’t be surprised to see other FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post, New York Times staffers get into the mix. If we include posters as “nerds” in this scenario, which I think we should, then this is almost a certainty.

Colbert and Stewart will be great 11 p.m. live election coverage with Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart? Yes, please. It may not be as informative as other broadcasts (especially ones on the Internet) but these two are funny enough that I will absolutely be tuning in.


~ by realfactsandbeer on November 4, 2014.

One Response to “Predictions for the 2014 midterm elections”

  1. […] I realized that if I don’t do this now then I won’t ever get this done. I made my predictions here. […]

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