Election Prediction

So everyone has election predictions and I am no different. Here is my electoral map:

2012 Election Predictions

Virginia is the state I went back and forth on the most.

I will be evaluating my predictions after the results are in so I might as well decide my criteria now: anything under 40 states right is really bad, 40-45 states correct is bad, 45-47 is good, 48-49 is really good and getting all 50 means I need celebration beer (preferably the Brooklyn Brewery’s Fiat Lux).

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~ by realfactsandbeer on November 5, 2012.

3 Responses to “Election Prediction”

  1. Definitely a reasonable map. I agree with you that Virginia is a very hard call. I think you’re right on Ohio. You may be right on Colorado-New Hampshire, but I have both going for Romney along with Wisconsin. I suggest you have the celebration beer regardless.

    • Colorado might be the most interesting state to look at exit polls and see how well third party candidates do. As for Wisconsin: you could be right but the plurality of the polling seems to give Obama the edge and Wisconsin hasn’t been red since ’84. Still our maps are very similar.

      I read your blog and it’s interesting to get the atypical professor’s POV, keep posting and thanks for reading

      • Thanks for taking the time to check it out. I agree with you that the Wisconsin polls haven’t closed all the way; there’s still daylight between Obama’s numbers and Romney’s. But the polls, while predicting that Scott Walker would win his recall election, underestimated the size of his victory. A similar effect may occur tomorrow – or, it may not!

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